The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
India is among the top three emerging markets in the wellness economy.
On the eve of Durga Puja in October 2008, industrialist Ratan Tata announced that Tata Motors would withdraw from the nearly completed Nano car plant in Singur, attributing the decision to Mamata Banerjee's anti-land acquisition movement, which he claimed had derailed what was meant to be a "groundbreaking project" -- the world's cheapest car.
At present there is virtually no dialog between votaries of different various versions of economic democracy.
'The response from the government using words like malicious, deliberate, etc is diverting from the real issue.' 'The indicators related to young children such as stunting or child mortality are a reflection of the social development in the country.' 'That's how we have to look at it and not ignore the issue by denying the data.'
'Investors should focus on largecap funds, flexicap funds, business cycle funds, or hybrid-category funds.'
Besides malls and high-street stores, there's a rush of discounts while you are flying or holidaying in fancy hotels.
Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual conference organised by the Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI), he also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. "India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services has shown a very smart uptick last month. "This (Indian economy) will strengthen even further," he said. "I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY 22," he noted.
US consumer confidence tumbled to a five-year low in March, disappointing economists and raising fears that the American economy could be heading into a deep recession. The Conference Board's confidence index fell from 76.4 in February 64.5 this month, compared with economists' expectations of a much lighter drop to about 74, as US consumers fretted over the deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices.
'As long as economic growth remains steady, creating jobs and generating stable incomes, the rise in home loans should not create problems.' 'If the growth trajectory changes course over the medium term and interest rates rise along with inflation, the expanding trend in home loans may not sustain.'
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
The business confidence index for Indian companies has bounced back to 156.8 points in the April-June quarter of 2010 after falling to a low of 81.6 during the same period last year.
The RBI expects inflation in 2015 to hover around 6 per cent -- its target for January 2016 -- and sees risks to the target evenly balanced.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) on Thursday came out with the Indian Space Policy 2023 to promote greater private sector participation in the entire value chain of the space economy. According to the policy, Isro will encourage new-generation entities to participate in space exploration and human presence in outer space, including collaboration with domestic and international stakeholders. The policy also sets a road map for Isro to transition from manufacturing operational space systems to focus energies on research and development in advanced technologies.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across sectors have expressed intentions to expand capacities, expecting the government's target to invest a record Rs 11.11 trillion on infrastructure development will act as a catalyst for a jump in consumer demand. "With the government planning a capex of Rs 11.11 trillion, private sector investment will come in a big way. Companies will be preparing for it right from today," H M Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement, told Business Standard. For the past few years, the investment scene in India has been dominated by government capital expenditures; private investments in the manufacturing sector have remained muted.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran considers absolute poverty a more direct and pressing concern for India. He argues that inequality is a relative concept. Simultaneously, with formerly economically deprived sections joining the ranks of the middle class, policy attention needs to extend beyond 'roti, kapda, makaan' to keep the growth engine up and running.
Every patriot should learn from our history and recognise that celebrating size will neither negate nor obscure the huge economic challenges that India faces, asserts Rathin Roy.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
'The Indian economy is expected to grow in terms of per capita income and GDP, and with that, the luxury segment becomes more relevant.'
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The toxic brew of fiscal populism, crony capitalism and bad economic management has ensured the collapse of economic growth, industrial stagnation, stubbornly high consumer inflation, declining savings and investment, shrinking employment opportunities, and a dangerously vulnerable external financing situation.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
The number of fresh formal jobs generated in a month increased to a seven-month high in April, signalling a recovery in the formal labour market in the country, according to the latest monthly payroll data released by the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on Thursday. In April, the number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) sequentially increased by 18.77 per cent to 887,438 from 747,146 in March.
Leaders need to be ready to adapt to technological changes as quickly as possible, while they build the tech capabilities, Nadella said.
One of every four people in the 27-37-year age group, the most prolific in using digital banking apps, reported a fraud in the past year
Many things could play spoilsport for the Indian economy.
'Good economics isn't necessarily bad politics, or vice versa,' says Shekhar Gupta.
The Congress on Thursday accused the Modi government of aiding 'drain of wealth' from ordinary Indians to crony corporates, and said it will end this practice if it comes to power at the Centre.
There will be a lot to repair and rejuvenate -- if that opportunity even presents itself, warns Rathin Roy.
She said that earlier governments used to sell dreams to people while the present regime is fulfilling the dreams.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
India's annual industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected pace of 3.6 percent in September.
Amid the ongoing festival season in the country, the hiring of gig workers has zoomed across sectors as the businesses have begun opening up leading to an uptick in consumer sentiments and rising pent-up demand, according to experts. "In the third quarter, with the onset of festive season, we are witnessing a 400 per cent spike in the hiring for gig workers. Earlier, in the first quarter of this year, as many businesses and companies were not operating at full strength, growth was muted. "However, things began picking up and became more promising from the second quarter, as the demand for gig workers across sectors grew," Taskmo, a subsidiary of Quess Corp, co-founder Prashant Janadri told PTI.
Revising India's GDP upwards by 0.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent in 2015, Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said the economy shows a new promise of turnaround after the election brought a stable government in May.
My sense is that we are in a situation similar to 2011-13, notes Debashis Basu.
If oil prices stay at their new level of $72 or drop further, India will be in the happy position next year of enjoying a surplus on the trade account.
